Year 5 of my participation in the Ice Cold Fantasy Invitational – Ice Cold won last year, ergo he gets the “honor” of having the league named after him for a season – and on the eve of the draft I am equal parts arrogant excitement and craven terror. I joined the league in 2008, taking over the worst franchise in the dynasty league with a simple plan: suck early, accrue good keepable talent, get the first pick overall, contend in 2010. Mission not accomplished. There are fourteen teams in the league. Here are my four finishes:
2008: 14th
2009: 14th
2010: 8th
2011: 14th
I came into this crowing about how anyone could turn one of these decrepit fantasy teams into a winner with patience and shrewd management. But I have drafted poorly. I have kept the wrong players. I have released players in the midst of horrid slumps only to see them start reverting to professional form for another team. I have traded for players during unsustainable hot streaks only to see them plummet back to terra firma once their statistics started counting for (against) me. Four seasons of “wait ‘til next year.” It has been like sitting through a quadruple feature of “Million Dollar Baby,” “Leaving Las Vegas,” “Precious” and “Sophie’s Choice,” only if the quadruple feature lasted four full summers and parts of those springs and falls.
So this late winter finds me about to embark on another almost-month-long snake draft to fill eighteen more slots after my seven keepers are chosen. Almost-month-long, because the thirteen other owners in this draft live in different towns/cities/states, and it has proven too difficult to get all fourteen owners to commit to three-plus hours to get the draft done in one day online. So instead, we draft on the league’s website, and sometimes there are minutes between picks…but sometimes there are days between picks (a team owner is offline, on a business trip, not “feeling it.”) As a form of therapy, I am going to analyze my seven keepers and – as a bonus to you, the reader – my first-overall draft pick by virtue of another last-place finish. Thanks for that to last year’s “blue-chipper” keepers of mine: Alex Rodriguez (I know,) Carl Crawford, Adam Dunn, Chris Carpenter, Alex Rios and Shin-Soo Choo. I wish them all persistent jock itch.
As a reminder, here are the league’s rules: 7×7 Rotisserie (Batting: Average, Home Runs, On-Base Percentage, Runs Scored, Runs Batted In, Total Bases, Stolen Bases. Pitching: Wins, Win Percentage, Hits/Innings Pitched, Earned Run Average, Walks/Strikeouts Ratio, Saves.) 25 active players per team, no bench, unlimited disabled list space (but once a player is taken off the DL, he goes back on your active roster or you release him.) Seven keepers per team who may be kept a maximum of three seasons before being released to the draft, but at the beginning of each season one keeper per team may be designated as a “franchise” player, and he may be kept indefinitely. However, once the franchise tag is removed, that player is released to the draft. Free agent moves and lineup adjustments are done weekly. Salary cap. Points awarded in each category based on order of finish – first in a category is worth 14 points, last is worth 1. Highest point total wins.
FRANCHISE PLAYER: Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
How I acquired him: With Zack Greinke for Hunter Pence, Shin-Soo Choo and Josh Johnson (July 2011.)
Why I acquired him: Well, before the leak of the potential – I am not conceding anything – drug test failure and attached 50-game ban, Braun was a consensus Top-5 overall fantasy baseball player. Since he was rightfully (thankfully) (OK, maybe he just got lucky, whatever) exonerated, he is exactly that: a consensus Top-5 overall fantasy baseball player.
ESPN.com projections: .311 batting average/31 home runs/121 runs batted in, 25 steals, 111 runs scored.
Best case scenario: In a big old “Eff You” to Major League Baseball, Braun exceeds even those admittedly aggressive projections and waltzes to another National League Most Valuable Player Award.
Worst case scenario: Braun is injury-prone all season with nagging muscle strains, and when healthy his bat speed is mysteriously missing. If this happens, well, I suppose I deserve what I get rooting for a probable PED cheat. That said, I had no idea he was (possibly) using when I traded for him.
KEEPER: Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Colorado Rockies
How I acquired him: For Pablo Sandoval and Dan Haren (August 2011.)
Why I acquired him: 2011 was a “fall back to Earth” season for CarGo, but only because his 2010 was so ridiculous (.336/34/117, 26 steals, 111 runs scored.) If he bounces back, and at age 26 it is not like his skill set is likely in decline, he is potentially a Top-10 overall talent.
ESPN.com projections: .292/28/91, 20 steals, 92 runs scored.
Best case scenario: It is another pinball-machine-on-ecstasy offensive year for the Rockies in the thin air, and Gonzalez is in the middle of all of it, hitting and running and hitting and running and putting up crooked numbers everywhere.
Worst case scenario: 2011 turns out to be the “real” Gonzalez, and 2012 thus reveals him as a good/very good player but not a superstar.
KEEPER: Mike Stanton, OF, Florida Marlins
How I acquired him: For C.C. Sabathia (March 2011.)
Why I acquired him: He is 22 years old and last season he hit 34 home runs in a bad lineup, playing in front of like 48 people every other night in a converted football stadium. This season, he is moving into a new yard, and the team spent a ton of money to put Jose Reyes on base in front of him. Giddy up!
ESPN.com projections: .269/37/101, 99 runs scored.
Best case scenario: More than 40 bombs, more than 120 RBI, and a high on-base percentage with some better plate discipline and a few more walks, partly from taking more bad pitches and partly from pitchers being scared of him as the season wears on and he keeps making SportsCenter with tape-measure moon shots.
Worst case scenario: Sophomore slump/regression/growing pains…a line of .248/24/80, and a ton of strikeouts. Please, Lord, no.
KEEPER: Eric Hosmer, 1B, Kansas City Royals
How I acquired him: For Alex Rodriguez, Brian Wilson, Frank Francisco and Kyle Farnsworth (June 2011.)
Why I acquired him: Even by late June, it was apparent to me last season that my team was doomed. Look at who I kept. Dunn did not hit .200. Rios was around .220 all year. Crawford was such a bust, he was platooned by the end of the season, enormous free agent contract be damned. Choo got hurt. Anyway, when Hosmer became available, I traded the ghost of ARod and all three of my closers for him and the re-re-rebuild began anew. Hosmer looks like his ceiling is Joey Votto, and that is a high ceiling.
ESPN.com projections: .289/20/85, 11 steals, 82 runs scored.
Best case scenario: To be honest, I would take the projections above and be very happy. He is 22, and this will be his first full season in the major leagues. Anything beyond the projections would just be gravy.
Worst case scenario: A slow start in the early season cold weather, the Royals sink quickly again, the lineup around him is in constant flux, and he spends next offseason “trying to prove the doubters wrong.”
KEEPER: Zack Greinke, SP, Milwaukee Brewers
How I acquired him: See above (Ryan Braun deal.)
Why I acquired him: Upper-echelon starting pitchers – particularly when they are still young and healthy, particularly in the lighter-hitting National League – are hard to come by. No matter how he ended 2011, he was going to have value in 2012. That he won 16 and struck out 200+ despite missing the first month of the season with a rib tweak was more than reassuring.
ESPN.com projections: 15-10, 3.39 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 233 K’s.
Best case scenario: There is no good reason why he could not win 20 games in the terrible, awful, pitiful National League Central.
Worst case scenario: Braun struggles, the Brewers miss Prince Fielder more than anyone could have imagined, and Greinke misses out on a number of possible wins due to a lack of run support.
KEEPER: Adam Jones, OF, Baltimore Orioles
How I acquired him: For Jason Kipnis and Dee Gordon (February 2012.)
Why I acquired him: Kipnis and Gordon are each promising players. I would have been happy enough to keep Gordon, particularly, since the shortstop job is his to lose for the Dodgers and he will probably steal 50 bases by accident. Jones was everybody and his brother’s “can’t miss prospect” three years ago. I know, because I kept him in 2008. He missed. Since then, though, he has developed into a reliable (though not dynamic) run-producer and, at age 26, if he is ever going to make “the leap,” you figure this will be the year.
ESPN.com projections: .274/24/80, 11 steals, 76 runs scored.
Best case scenario: Even marginal increases in the projections would turn Jones into a big star from a fantasy perspective, a Carlos Gonzalez Lite. The Orioles cannot lose 90+ games every season, can they?
Worst case scenario: The Orioles can, in fact, lose 90+ games every season, and each of Jones’ 20 home runs come with nobody on base in front of him.
KEEPER: Dustin Ackley, 2B, Seattle Mariners
How I acquired him: For Carl Crawford and Trevor Cahill (July 2011.)
Why I acquired him: Like Hosmer, Ackley is thought to be a potential star. And like Hosmer, I control his rights for this season and the two seasons after this one. Second base is traditionally a tough position to fill – my hope is that Ackley will cover 2B for me for some years to come.
ESPN.com projections: .277/11/59, 11 steals, 81 runs scored.
Best case scenario: Again, if I am being fair, I should probably take what is in the projections and run. Ackley is only 24, this will be his first season in the major leagues, and the lineup surrounding him, um, blows huge chunks.
Worst case scenario: I do not even want to think about this, but at this point in his career, a .175 April/May and a stint in the minors to “work on his swing” is not completely out of the question. Not likely, but not impossible.
AND WITH THE FIRST PICK OF THE 2012 REDRAFT….
Jose Reyes, SS, Florida Marlins
Why I am picking him: It is either Reyes, Ian Kinsler, or Tim Lincecum available in this spot. Starting pitching is available everywhere these days, and hitting is not. Lincecum is out. Kinsler had a terrific year last year, but I already have Ackley at second base and shortstop is another very difficult position to account for. Troy Tulowitzki and Hanley Ramirez belong to other teams already; after Reyes the dropoff in the shortstop position is precipitous (Jimmy Rollins? Really?) I do not care much for Reyes, but then I am not drafting this team to hang out with them.
ESPN.com projections: .307/9/50, 36 steals, 100 runs scored.
Best case scenario: Reyes steals more bases and scores more runs with Hanley Ramirez and Mike Stanton taking all of pitchers’ attention and pummeling balls off and over walls.
Worst case scenario: Reyes’ intermittent leg problems recur, he plays 80 games, and the first season of his mega-deal is a washout.
Only 17 more players left to take in the draft. I have waited for “next year” long enough and too often. Got to get it right this time.
Posted by pckeidel 
