Fear And Self-Loathing In Phoenixville

Only recently have I come to realize something that is probably all too apparent to the rest of the world: I pursue and maintain destructive relationships (with sports teams) because, somewhere in my heart, I must enjoy suffering more than I enjoy happiness.  Oh God.

This feeling came washing over me yesterday as I watched first the New England Patriots and then the New York Giants turn in solid, decent, but not overpowering performances in conference championship games, with both of them winning nonetheless.  And then I started thinking about the Philadelphia Eagles, my chosen National Football League team.  Famously, they lost four NFC Championship games when Donovan McNabb was still a quality quarterback and Andy Reid had not yet proven himself to be incapable of finding the high gears come playoff time.  Two of those losses were dead-bang stinkbombs (home to Tampa Bay shutting Veterans’ Stadium down, home again to Carolina the next year and christening Lincoln Financial Field by scoring three points in an elimination game.)  But the other two, well, you could definitely qualify their efforts in those games (at St. Louis, at Arizona) as solid, decent, but not overpowering performances…and both times, instead of surviving as the Patriots and the Giants did yesterday, the Eagles lost.

This is not to suggest that this year’s Eagles team could have/might have/should have been in the spot the Giants are in now.  Suggesting that the Eagles, who would have taken the Giants’ playoff spot with one more win, could have done what the Giants have done is ignorant.  So far in this playoff run the Giants have won at Atlanta, at Green Bay, and at San Francisco.  They get the Patriots next.  The Eagles went 0-3 against those four teams this season, and they missed playing 15-1 Green Bay.  Their game against the Patriots – in Philadelphia – was so lopsided that Tom Brady was removed from the game…which, if you watch the Patriots at all, just does not happen.  Brady wants the ball all the time.  He wants to continue honing his craft and piling up points and being responsible for his team’s success, all the time.  He is a lot like Michael Jordan in that way.  (Many ways, actually.)  So, no, I do not pretend to equate the Eagles with the Giants in any way.  What I am saying here is that through decades of rooting for the Eagles I have felt terrifically confident about them one time and one time only – the year they had Terrell Owens, the year they lost to the Patriots in the Super Bowl.  That was a team without glaring weaknesses.  When I meet God, if He gives me only one question that He will answer, I will not ask him the meaning of life, or what my biggest success or failure was, or even if He actually exists.  I will ask him whether the Eagles would have won that Super Bowl if Owens had been 100% healthy.  That question will follow me to my grave.

So then I turned the channel to watch some of the Flyers game against the Boston Bruins.  You may already have heard something about this, but the Flyers have had sort of a difficult time finding anyone any good to play goaltender for them.  They have gone to the Stanley Cup Finals twice in the past fifteen years.  In 1997, they played the Stanley Cup Finals with The Artist Formerly Known As Ron Hextall and Garth Snow.  They, uh, got swept.  In 2010 they played the Stanley Cup Finals with Brian Boucher (another “second time around” guy) and Michael Leighton.  I have to tell you, watching your team try to win a Stanley Cup with these guys in the net is not that like experiencing that happy feeling that, say, New Jersey Devils fans had when Martin Brodeur was winning all those Cups, or Montreal Canadiens fans had when Patrick Roy was minding the store.  No, I have thrown my lot in with a franchise that gets everything more or less right except, well, for the part where the last guy between the other team and the net never seems ready for prime time.

The $50M contract for Ilya Bryzgalov seemed extreme and maybe even panicky when it was announced, but given everything I just observed above, and given that the Flyers were swept out of the playoffs last season by the Bruins with Boucher and Sergei Bobrovsky both seeing time, maybe panic was finally the rational thing.  Finally, we’re going to fix the hole in the bucket, right?  Right?  Smash-cut to yesterday, watching Bryzgalov give up not one but two dreadful, soft, bad-angle goals to let the Bruins back into yesterday’s game, followed by the Bruins abusing him in the ensuing post-overtime shootout.  The Flyers are well-past the halfway point of the season and if the playoffs started today, which of these two goaltenders would you choose to start Game 1 against the Ottawa Senators:

Goalie A:  18 games, 10-4-1, 2.46 goals against average, .919 save percentage

Goalie B:  33 games, 18-10-4, 2.99 goals against average, .895 save percentage

Well, if you are the Flyers, you are probably going to choose Goalie B, because he is the one you gave the $50M contract to.  So once again, I have voluntarily, willingly, and without any sense of self-preservation given myself to a team that cannot get out of its own way.

I know you want to tell me that it is not all my fault, and that not all my choices are so terrible.  “Look at your Sixers,” you say.  “For years they tortured you, until you could not watch.  But they came back to you!  They are 12-5 now!”  I guess.  But every time you say “they routinely pound bad teams and win games they should win,” I am going to tell you that you saw all you needed to see last weekend, when the 11-4 Sixers went to Miami and got their scrappy, young, hungry rear ends handed to them by a Heat team that did not even have Dwyane Wade in uniform.  Yes, they will win a lot of games.  Yes, they will probably get a top-four seed in the conference and host a playoff series, which they will likely win.  But eventually, Round Two will come, and Round Two will mean a series on the road at Miami, Chicago or Orlando.  I don’t want to talk about this any more.

My son asked me in the car on the way to getting his hair cut tonight when the Phillies will be playing again.  “Pitchers and catchers start in three weeks, everyone starts up by early March, and the season will begin a month after that,” I said, the words coming out of me like a memorized stage line.  But even as I recited what used to be a way to comfort myself in the bleak, cold, gray winter days – pretty soon it will be baseball season again! – I could feel my heart sink.  Do I really have it in me to spend another six months with this team just for the likely privilege of watching them hit .211 in another playoff series and lose another deciding game where Roy Halladay gives up one run and that is all the other team needs?  Can I possibly survive a fourth consecutive season of watching another team celebrating on the field while the Phillies trudge out of the dugout, back into the clubhouse, resigned to another offseason of “wait ‘til next year?”  I just don’t know.

Even my adopted foreign squad, Manchester City Football Club, is making me question my own sanity.  They won again yesterday, and they remain three points clear of second-place (hated) Manchester United in the Barclays Premier League.  But they won, really, in spite of themselves.  Two separate City players should have been thrown out of the game for violent play (one guy elbowed an opponent in the jaw, the other cleated a fallen opponent’s head.)  They blew a two-goal lead at home, which great teams rarely if ever do.  Their goaltender, the purportedly all-England/all-world Joe Hart, made a mistake that most good college goaltenders would never make to give up the first goal that put opposing Tottenham Hotspur back in the game.  They only won because the striker – the aforementioned cleater – was fouled in the penalty area with a minute left in stoppage time and converted the penalty shot.  Many have said and I will agree that he should not have been in the game at that point at all.  And all that was just yesterday.  This season has also seen City fail in its defense of the FA Cup, losing to United after City’s best defensive player was thrown out of that game.  That they came back from down 3-0 to score twice with ten men and “only” lose 3-2 was cold comfort at best.  They lost a league game at Sunderland on the last play of the game when an offside player scored on a breakaway a la Bobby Nystrom in 1980.  They are embroiled in a contract dispute with one of their best players, who after refusing to enter a game early this season was banned from the team’s games.  And I will not even attempt to describe here City’s failure to survive the knockout stage of the Champions League.  For a team that is presently the favorite to win the Premier League title, City sure makes it interesting, and loses a lot.

Did I mention that my favorite sport to actually play is golf?

I need help.

Conference Championship NFL Picks

I just read two multiple-paragraph justifications for the picks I am about to make, which were also made by that pundit.  (OK, fine, it was Simmons, I’m sorry.)  He wasted a lot of words though.  I know, I was surprised by that too.  All he needed to say was this: Tom Brady or Joe Flacco?  I’ll take Brady.  Eli Manning or Alex Smith?  I’ll take Manning.  God help the man who takes the seven points and the Ravens when it’s 24-7 in the third quarter and Flacco looks inept or scared (again.)  And as for San Francisco, it sort of feels like they won their Super Bowl last week by beating a better New Orleans Saints team with two improbable late scores.  Yes, the 49ers scored a ton of points last week, but the Saints’ defense was atrocious all year.  I get the better quarterback, the hotter team and two points?  Nice.

*PATRIOTS -7 over Ravens

Giants +2 over 49ERS

Last week: 3-1-0, 1-0-0*

Playoffs: 5-3-0, 2-0-0*

Regular Season: 106-111-9, 25-19-1*

Divisional Round NFL Picks

As usual, lines from Ladbrokes.com, and game where I am most confident denoted by an *.

49ERS +3 over Saints

*PATRIOTS -13.5 over Broncos

RAVENS -7.5 over Texans

Giants +7.5 over PACKERS

Last week: 2-2-0, 1-0-0*

Regular Season: 106-111-9, 25-19-1*

Reunited And It Feels So Good

The other night I watched with surprising disappointment as the Philadelphia 76ers put the finishing touches on a loss to the New York Knicks in Madison Square Garden.  As recently as last year that would be cause for a “here we go again, these guys are (Charles Barkley voice) turrrrrible” post.  No way.  Not now.  It is only ten games, but your team, your town, your 76ers are 7-3.  This despite playing six of those first ten games on the road – five of them to start the campaign.  You can say “but they have not played anybody good yet,” and, well, I guess there is not much I can say in response.  Four of these first ten wins (@GSW, DET, TOR, SAC) have come against the true dregs of the league.  The only real quality wins have come against Indiana at home and Phoenix on the road.  Fine.  But here’s the thing: past iterations of the 76ers would have limped out of the first ten games of this slate at 3-7 or 4-6.  These 76ers are 7-3, and you can only play the games on your schedule.

Litmus test games are coming.  They play at Miami on January 21.  But due to the blessing of the compacted 66-game schedule, here is the non-murderers’–row they face in the interim, starting tonight:  WAS, @WAS, MIL, DEN, ATL.  I don’t know how to tell you this, but they should be favored in every one of those games except maybe the Denver game.  The Wizards and the Bucks stink.  Actually, that’s unfair to the Bucks, who only stink, because the Wizards flat suck.  The Hawks are your classic sixth- or seventh-seed playoff team that are really tough at home but nothing to be too concerned about on the road, and they just lost Al Horford for three months.  So in the next five games, the Sixers have a very good chance to go 4-1.  But let’s say, just for fun, that they *only* go 3-2.  That would put them at 10-5(!) going into a matchup at Miami against the world’s first living heart donor, LeBron James, and the Heat in Miami.  Are you really telling me you will not be up for that game?  What else do you have going on in late January?

After the game against the Heat they get to play the Orlando Magic on January 30 in Philadelphia.  Orlando causes the 76ers all kinds of trouble because they (still, after six years) have no one to guard Dwight Howard.  I like Spencer Hawes and all (more on him below) but really the 76ers would be better off playing Hack-a-Dwight…I know it does not have the same ring, let’s just move on…and using all of Tony Battie’s six fouls in that one.  It almost worked for the Warriors, who put Howard on the line 39 times last night.  He only made 21 of them, and while it is 21 points given up for nothing it is a whole lot better than giving Howard 20 dunks or layups.  I still say the Sixers should be favored or at worst a pick’em in that one.

For me, though (channeling Gary Matthews there, and badly) the real test of where this team is will come on February 1 when the Chicago Bulls come to Philadelphia.  Because to my mind there is only one real difference between the 76ers and the Bulls.  Both teams are very deep, and both teams have a lot of youth and love to run.  But the Bulls have that one guy that is the difference between winning and losing (Derrick Rose.)  Right now, today, no one can reasonably say that the 76ers have that difference-maker.  Looking at the roster, though, they may not need to wait too long.

One of my favorite Bill Simmons lines of all time is his reaction to teams that languish in mediocrity (or worse) for extended periods of time.   “Don’t these teams have scouts?” he rages.  Fair enough.  The 76ers are a fine example of this.  Forever and a day, the 76ers have had really high-to-pretty high draft picks and, not to put too fine a point on it, sh*t the bed over and over and over again.  Shawn Bradley.  Sharone Wright.  Jerry Stackhouse (that’s right, I’m saying it, he was a total bust) and Larry Hughes.  Not to mention all the years the fan base was told things like “Jiri Welsch was a steal at #16 in this draft!”  Well, you were half-right…he stole money from you.  Each one was supposed to be the difference-maker, but they all ended up playing for bad teams that they did nothing to improve.  Really, if not for the Allen Iverson pick in 1996, we could absolutely be talking about a franchise that remained irrelevant for the better part of three decades.  And I still love Bubba Chuck, thanks for asking.

So then you take a look at this year’s team and, candidly, it is hard to see why you should buy in.  A lot of these guys look awfully familiar.  When they gave Elton Brand the five-year, $82M contract, they hoped he might turn into that.  We can safely say now, in the fourth year of the deal, that that is never going to happen.  He blew his shoulder out in the first year of the deal, and given that he previously had a terrible knee injury it cannot be that great a surprise that he did not bounce back into a 20/10 guy.  The past two seasons he was healthy, and all he could manage was 13.1/6.1 and 15.0/8.3.  Not terrible, mind you, but definitely not “highest-paid guy on the team” numbers.  He has one more year on his deal.  Expiring contracts (and those with few years left) have long been a trade chip in the league.  Again, though, I think the Sixers are best off holding onto Brand.  The money they have committed to him is a shame for a player who now is a starting-but-part-time player at 30 minutes a game.  And he is not going to put up even 15/8 again anytime soon.  But he is a credible low post player, still, and the Sixers really do not have many of them, especially after trading Marreese Speights for draft picks.

Speaking of long-term, big-cash guys, this is Andre Iguodala’s eighth season here.  Eight years!  And for each of the last three seasons the talk has been that the Sixers should trade Iguodala to a contender for pieces.  The logic behind it was always the same: good player, dependable player, but not a star and not a guy who can win games by himself.  All that was (and is) true.  His career stats as of this writing: 15.6 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 4.8 APG, 1.8 SPG.  So no, he is not a triple-double waiting to happen.  But he has been durable and he has been an excellent citizen/teammate through a disastrous period for the franchise.  If you want to see him traded now, fine, but I would advise against it.  His value on the market is not what it was, and for this team, with this personnel group, he is actually pretty close to invaluable.  Because, you see, he is the best player on this team at what this team can do.

Which is, to do a little bit of everything.  As noted above, the Sixers do not have a franchise player, a star, a difference-maker.  What they have, though, is a rotation that goes eight-deep with quality NBA players.  Iguodala and Brand are legitimate.  Hawes is often referred to these days as “coming into his own.”  Let’s not get carried away: he is a slight jump-shooting center who does not protect the rim all that well.  But in ten games this season he is averaging 11 and 9, so he should play.  Thaddeus Young (another fifth-year Sixer) has established himself in the league as a player who rises high and finishes, provides energy, grabs a few rebounds and, um, that’s it.  Still, he has averaged double-digit points per game for three seasons running, and the market for him was such that the Sixers had to pay him $7.7M this season to keep him here.  He is legit.

I will not spend a lot of time debating the credits and debits of Evan Turner, nor will I try to justify his having been selected #2 overall in the draft two seasons ago.  No one really thought he was a #2 overall selection from a talent perspective.  I will, however, note that the following players were taken immediately after Turner: Derrick Favors (such a head case that he was traded from New Jersey to Utah before his rookie season ended), Wesley Johnson (deep reserve for the not-that-great Timberwolves and buried behind Kevin Love), and DeMarcus Cousins (another head case, recently got Paul Westhead fired by the Kings.)  At least the Sixers have the opportunity to develop Turner without fearing that he will obliterate the team from within.  At least for now, he’s a keeper.

Your other valuable pieces for the Sixers are Jodie Meeks and Lou Williams.  Meeks was a stone-dead gunner at Kentucky, a scorer who did nothing else.  He is best remembered for hanging 54 points on Tennessee one fine night.  Relevant now is that he shot better than 40% from three-point range in his last year of college ball, and that he has shot 37% for his career in the NBA from even further out.  As for Williams, he is another “man, how long has he been here?” guy.  This is his seventh season on the team, and he has developed from a limited slasher to a top-of-the-line sixth man, averaging better than 13.7 points per game off the bench for the last 2+ seasons.  Bottom line is that the eight-man rotation is very solid.  Not one of them is “special.”  There is no one you can tap for greatness.

Wait…Iggy, Brand, Hawes, Thad, Evan, Meeks, Lou…I must be forgetting someone.

Ohhhh, that’s right, I am forgetting someone.  The crown jewel.  The one who may yet really become “The One.”  Jrue Holiday.  I almost forgot.  Just 21 years old but already the undisputed general on the floor.  14+ points per game last season and this.  Better than 37% from three-point range.  Approximates to five assists, three rebounds and two assists per game.  And maybe this is the ultimate cop-out, but Holiday is one of these players for whom the numbers do not seem to tell you how good he is, or may yet be.  You sort of have to watch him play to see it.

Therein lies the rub, because of course no one really watches the Sixers play.  That is what a decade of borderline-playoff and worse finishes gets you in a town that is Eagles, then Flyers, then Phillies if they are good, then Eagles again, and then finally Sixers just before the Union and the Soul.  I will credit new ownership with slashing ticket prices, because it never made any sense to me to make the face value of a ticket in the corner of the lower bowl more than $50 when nobody would buy the seat unless LeBron or Kobe was in town.  On Monday I am taking my wife and my son to the Martin Luther King, Jr. game against the Milwaukee Bucks, taking advantage of the $17.76 or less pricing for the entire mezzanine in April.  We are center court first row upstairs.  I cannot wait.

The main holdback for Sixers fans and Philadelphia sports fans in general seems to be that this team, as constructed, cannot win the conference or a championship.  I cannot dispute that.  In a playoff series against Miami or Chicago they would be heavy underdogs.  Boston’s recent troubles notwithstanding, presently it is tough to see them beating Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen and Paul Pierce in seven games.  So there is definitely a ceiling on how high this Sixers team can go.

I do not care about that, though.  This is a good team, and I am going to watch.  You do what you want.

Wild Card Weekend NFL Picks

Just getting these in before kickoff.  As usual, lines from Ladbrokes.com, and game where I am most confident denoted by an *.

Bengals +4.5 over TEXANS

SAINTS -10 over Lions

*GIANTS -3 over Falcons

Steelers -7.5 over BRONCOS

Last week:  7-7-2, 2-1-0*

Season:  106-111-9, 25-19-1*

OK, Great, Now Do It Backwards

Tonight I watched Newcastle United 3-0 Manchester United with my five-year-old son.  When Phil Jones headed Newcastle’s last goal into United’s net (his own, that is) I pumped a fist, since United’s loss put Manchester City three points clear atop the Premier League (effectively four points, since City’s goal difference over United is plenary.)  His reaction?  “That sucks.”  Immediately I went into “serious dad” mode, lecturing about bad language, fielding the typical arguments you get from children (“everyone else says it,”) emphasizing the need not to do substandard things just because everyone else does them.  If you had been there, though, you would have seen me stifling a giggle, hard.  Because while my son’s language was inappropriate, his analysis was incisive and spot-on – Jones’ play flat sucked, and only the BBC’s standards of commentary kept the color man on the broadcast from saying exactly that.

This afternoon I took my family to Citizens’ Bank Park for a high school hockey game.  You read that right.  The Hill School, in Pottstown, PA, was our home for four years and my wife’s employer for those same four years.  Working in schools, as my wife has, makes her a member of several school “communities.”  Community, as these private schools define it, is an extremely broad term that basically includes everyone involved in the past or present function of the school who was not asked to leave.  So when the Hill posted a link on its website noting that it had been “invited” to play on the Winter Classic rink at CBP, and that it had in turn accepted the invitation and nominated its #1 rival, the Lawrenceville School, to oppose it, and oh-by-the-way, the Hill community is invited to attend the game and a postgame reception…they really did not need to ask me twice.  Free parking, free game, free food?  They really know how I tick.  Hill trailed 2-0 through two periods on two short-handed goals.  The third period was quickly passing by without incident, and it was still below-freezing in the old ballyard, and it sure felt like the game was a lost cause for the Blues.  And then.  With the goaltender pulled, Hill scored with 58 seconds left.  Good for them, I thought, they did not get shut out hosting their own Winter Classic.  The goalie came back in for the center ice faceoff, Hill pressed, Lawrenceville iced it, 18 seconds remained, Hill’s goalie was back on the bench.  Offensive zone draw, Hill wins the faceoff, shot from the point, scrum, poke, SCORE!  2-2 with 2.8 seconds left.  Mind you, Lawrenceville had two wins in eight games going into today, and Hill had two wins in sixteen (16!) games.  No matter.  To the shootout they went.  Two rivals, living and dying with each one-on-one battle between breakaway shooter and lonesome netminder.  A save, a score, a score, another save.  Five shooters for each team, two goals for each team.

And then it was over.

“WHAT?”  That was my reaction.  “Why are they leaving the ice?  Why are they shaking hands?  Why are they taking team pictures?  WHAT THE HELL JUST HAPPENED?”  Here’s what happened:  the schools had the ice reserved for two hours, from 2:00 to 4:00.  And when the fifth Hill shooter, with the game on his forehand, was stoned by Lawrenceville’s goalie, the clock struck 4:00, and the game was over.  Echoes of “Let Them Play!” from the Bad News Bears movies rattled around my brain, but instinctively I knew that if I protested I would be alone.  The game was over.

This evening’s United loss was useful in part because of yesterday’s 3-0 strafing of Liverpool by City at the Etihad, another game I watched almost from beginning to end.  I have said it before, but still.  I love watching City play.  During the game I was surfing the Web for a proper Manchester City FC scarf.  “When would you wear it,” my wife asked.  “When wouldn’t I?” I responded.  It is going to be great when they win the Prem this year.  Yeah, I said it.  Incidentally, both the United and City games were on my DVR since they were played at 3:00 EST, a decidedly inconvenient hour.  Few things are more mildly annoying than avoiding Twitter and Facebook for six hours to avoid finding out the score of an English soccer game that happened earlier in the day.  The City game especially was a longed-for treat, since it was broadcast on ESPN2 with play-by-play by Sir Ian Darke and color commentary from Steve McManaman.  Those two are as close to Kalas and Ashburn as I get anymore.

Sunday afternoon’s Winter Classic (the NHL version) was an unsatisfying result to be sure, but really I felt it was a reasonable facsimile of the fates of these franchises since Bernie Parent stopped being the Flyers’ goaltender, i.e., the Rangers have a goaltender (now it is Henrik Lundquist, when they won the Stanley Cup it was Mike Richter) and the Flyers don’t – megabucks free agent goaltender Ilya Bryzgalov was benched for the Winter Classic in favor of Sergei Bobrovsky (remember him?)  Bob promptly lost the game, in no small part due to a bad-angle softie he gave up to a checking-line winger that tied the score at two as the Flyers blew a two-goal lead.  You know what?  Let’s talk about the Flyers again in April.  As long as they get the eight-seed (they are on pace for better, for sure) it is all the same.

New Year’s Day we hosted thirty (or so) family members at our home.  The entire day is a flat blur, cleaning the house, running to Wegmans, cleaning the house some more, setting up the bar, setting up the food, then the party started and the real work began…my body hurts again just thinking about it.  Week 17 of the NFL was more or less elevator music for the whole day; there were never even five minutes to sit and watch or even listen to any of the games.  I know, though, that the Eagles pounded the Redskins and that my picks (fittingly) went 7-7-2 against the spread.  I enjoyed my relatives picking on me for finishing below .500 for the season on my picks.  Yes, I said, but my best bets were 25-19-1.  That’s pretty good.  Oh, and Andy Reid is coming back, but then I told you that awhile back when I reminded you that Jeffrey Lurie was never going to pay Reid $5M in 2012 to join the Green Bay Packers as an unpaid offensive consultant.

New Year’s Eve was the highlight of this past 96+ hours.  Somehow I parlayed the Adam Carolla Keswick Theater experience into a free (there’s that word again…yum yum) ticket to the Winter Classic Alumni Game IN A SUITE.  Ordinarily I get chafed by paying $25 to park, but when the game, the food and the beer are all gratis, well, here is $40, can I get three fives?  Because I need them to bet on who will score in the Alumni Game.  In the suite I organized a snake draft among the eight of us watching the game together.  Five dollars a man, pick two players, if your player scores you win the pot.  It was only right that I gave the first pick to our host and the last pick to myself.  So by the time it got to me,  the easy picks were gone (Lindros, Messier) but then amazingly so were some nostalgia guys (Clarke, Barber, Leach.)  You’re betting on a guy whose last goal that counted happened when you were in grade school?  Just how many shifts do you think these guys have in them?  So I went “don’t pass,” i.e., I took Mike Gartner (700+ career goals, *just* 50 years old) and Adam Graves (329 career goals and *only* 43 years old.)  Look, I did not want to say “I picked Flyers,” I wanted to say “I got paid.”  Except, I didn’t.  Gartner got stoned by career Flyer minor-leaguer Neil Little on a breakaway in the third period, and I winced.  He was a great pick, but Graves, well, not so much.  It probably goes without saying that betting on an Alumni Game at any level is a cry for help.

Whatever.  It has been a good week so far.

Week 17 NFL Picks

We have a couple dozen or so relatives coming to the house later today to ring in the new year.  It is not off to the greatest start, with Manchester City losing today on a last-second goal scored by a clearly offside opposing striker.  I really did not need a Bobby Nystrom flashback to open my 2012 sports fan viewing.  Dammit.

The last week of the NFL season is no time to be trying to make up ground with the picks.  No one can know who will try to win, who will not try very hard to win, which players will be out there for the most part trying not to get hurt, etc.  The lines reflect all of these issues but it is still even more of a guessing game than normal.  And of course I have really limped into the endgame.  Still, I started this marathon and I am resigned to finish it.  As usual, lines from Ladbrokes.com, and games where I am most confident denoted by an *.

Redskins +7 over EAGLES

RAMS +10.5 over 49ers

VIKINGS -2.5 over Bears

*Lions -6.5 over PACKERS

*SAINTS -7 over Panthers

Titans -1 over TEXANS

JAGUARS -3 over Colts

DOLPHINS -3 over Jets

PATRIOTS -10.5 over Bills

*FALCONS -10 over Buccaneers

BENGALS +2 over Ravens

Steelers -7 over BROWNS

Chargers +3 over RAIDERS

BRONCOS -2.5 over Chiefs

CARDINALS -3 over Seahawks

GIANTS -3 over Cowboys

Last week:  7-9-0, 1-2-0*

Season:  99-104-7, 23-18-1*

Week 16 NFL Picks

Like any true degenerate, I think I have a pretty good read on the slate this weekend.  This, despite the mounting evidence that in fact I know less about football than you or anyone else.  Last week was a true low.  Hopefully there is nowhere to go but up.

As usual, lines from Ladbrokes.com, and games where I am most confident denoted by an *.  No stay-away this week…Daddy needs a new pair of shoes.

CHIEFS -2.5 over Raiders

BILLS +2.5 over Broncos

TITANS -7 over Jaguars

BENGALS -4.5 over Cardinals

PATRIOTS -9.5 over Dolphins

Browns +12.5 over RAVENS

*JETS -3 over Giants

REDSKINS -7 over Vikings

*PANTHERS -7.5 over Buccaneers

STEELERS -12.5 over Rams

LIONS -2 over Chargers

*COWBOYS -1 over Eagles

SEAHAWKS +1 over 49ers

Bears +11 over PACKERS

SAINTS -7 over Falcons

Season:  92-95-7, 22-17-1*

Thursday Night Pick

I’m with you…I don’t know why I am still doing this either after last week.

Texans -7 over COLTS

Last week:  4-10-1, 1-2-0*

Season:  92-94-7, 22-17-1*

Christmas Shopping Help and Week 15 NFL Picks

My son asked for a Tom Brady jersey for Christmas.  Sharper than a serpent’s tooth it is to have a thankless child.  I would rather he asked for a game-worn Mike McQueary Penn State jersey, or a Sam Hurd Dallas Cowboys helmet.  He will probably get the Brady jersey, though, and the DeSean Jackson and LeSean McCoy jerseys he got last Christmas (which both still fit him) will remain safely hung up in his closet, not to see daylight.

You did not ask for my advice, but here it comes anyway.  For all you grandparents out there who do not follow sports, for all you parents too busy working three jobs to keep up with the local sports teams, here follows some advice on which jerseys to buy (and which ones not to buy) for the Philadelphia sports fan in your life.  This may seem like trivial advice, but tell that to the guy who just left Dick’s Sporting Goods in Exton with the $159.99 Claude Giroux jersey not knowing that Giroux may not play again this season.

That scenario illustrates vividly the inherent difficulty in purchasing a jersey.  Too many times the purchase is ill-considered and rash.  To do this right, you have to ask some basic, important questions.  It starts with “is this player any good,” but really if he was lousy his jersey would not be available without a special order.  The crucial questions are less obvious.  What is the player’s contract status?  What is his injury history?  Is this a player you can proudly support?  And ultimately, how long do you think you will be able to wear this thing, i.e., how long with this athlete be with this team?  I have bought and worn two jerseys in the past fifteen years:  Donovan McNabb’s home midnight green 5 and Chase Utley’s home white pinstriped 26.  Say what you will, but I got years of wear from both of those jerseys (and the Utley jersey still works, though the bloom is let’s face it off the rose a bit…oh, and happy birthday, Chase!  How’s the baby?)  I am writing this trying to keep you or a loved one from being the guy at the Wells Fargo Center in the “OATES 77″ Flyers jersey.  Although, to be honest, Flyers fans seem to wear far-out-of-season former-Flyer jerseys with a demented ignorance varnished with a thin layer of pride.

PHILADELPHIA FLYERS

BUY:  Sadly, until a little while ago Giroux was in fact the logical pick, a young and burgeoning superstar that the Flyers figured to build around for a long time.  Today, though, with Giroux sidelined with “concussion-like symptoms,” you are looking at a player who may not play again this season, or for that matter, ever.  The Sidney Crosby situation is the closest comparison we can draw, and his last year has been eleven months off, eight games played, and now he is shut down again.  Giroux has only been out for a week and a half, but then a week and a half into Crosby’s concussion recovery, they were talking about him coming back for the playoffs.  So I cannot recommend a Giroux jersey, at least under these facts.  Ilya Bryzgalov is under contract until forever, but do you really want to wear a goaltender’s jersey?  Just because you may have gotten a decade’s use out of your David Akers jersey did not make it cool.  So the recommendation here is James van Riemsdyk.  Young player, under contract for six more years, no real significant injury problems.  He is the safest bet on the board.  Then again, last winter a woman we know bought her young sons a jersey apiece…Jeff Carter and Mike Richards.  You just never know.

AVOID:  We are all enjoying this Jaromir Jagr renaissance.  Everyone (including me) thought the Jagr signing in the offseason was a pitiful attention-grabber and that Jagr would spend most if not all of the season rehabilitating his groin (not a euphemism.)  Instead, he has played in all but four of the Flyers’ 30 games and he is averaging exactly a point a game when he plays.  It is all good…but paying the sticker price for this jersey now is insanity.  For one thing, he is always one wrong move from being placed on injured reserve.  More to the point, though, is that he is turning 40 in February.  Enjoy his play while it lasts, but do not get carried away.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

BUY:  LeSean McCoy is the only possible choice here.  He is going to finish with something like 1,500 yards rushing and 15-18 touchdowns.  He is 23 years old.  And he is probably the only player in the entire organization who can honestly say in this abortion of a season that he never dogged it, never checked out, and did everything in his power to help his team win.  Wait, no, not probably — he IS the only one who can say that.

AVOID:  Do I really need to tell you why it would be a bad idea to buy a Michael Vick jersey?  He’s out.  DeSean Jackson has been a popular choice for a few seasons now, but to me it looks like he is going to be traded or released this offseason.  The Eagles need a scapegoat, and 10 seems all too willing to sign up to wear the horns.  Buying a Jackson jersey now would actually give you an even-money proposition of opening the player’s jersey on Christmas morning, having him beg out of the last game of the season, then seeing him leave in the offseason.  Obsolete on arrival.  Similar caution applies to Asante Samuel, as it is hard to imagine that he will be back, either.  You would be pretty safe picking up a Nnamdi Asomugha jersey, but the way he has played, I wouldn’t.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

BUY:  I do not think you can go wrong with Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee, both signed for plenty of years, both still pitching at a very high level, both known for durability.  News of Jimmy Rollins’ re-signing today for three more years converts him from an “AVOID” to a measured “BUY” — yes, he will be here, but if he is hitting .255 in 2014 that is not a jersey you will be thrilled with.

AVOID:  Much as it kills me to say it, it is time to steer clear of both Chase Utley and Ryan Howard.  ”Wait,” I just heard you say, “Howard’s five-year extension has not even kicked in yet!  He is not going anywhere!”  Right you are, friend.  And that is the problem.  I just observed that the Rollins jersey will be a disappointment in three years if JRoll is hitting .255.  Well, .255 just about appears to be Howard’s ceiling any more.  2012 figures to be a lost season for the Big Piece, because no matter what happy spin the Phillies are putting on his Achilles tendon rehab, they did not sign Laynce Nix and Josh Willingham to pinch-hit and platoon.  As for Utley, the pounding of all those games at second base have left him a shadow of his formerly great self.  There is no shame in this.  The position is grueling.  There are only so many double plays you can turn or ground balls in the hole you can dive for before you start slowing down.  And all that stuff I said above about Bryzgalov and Akers?  Feel free to tack that same analysis on to the Jonathan Papelbon Phillies jersey.  Specialists just do not make good wears.

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS

BUY:  Wow.  This really is like trying to pick the purest maiden at the strip club, isn’t it?  Elton Brand and Andre Iguodala are the big “stars” on this team, but if you have seen them play it is pretty hard to get excited about either one of them.  There are only so many Iguodala airballs from three-point range and missed layups from Brand that one can take.  So you have to speculate on one of the kids.  For me, it is Jrue Holiday.  He averaged 14/6/4 last season as a sophomore in the league, and you know he is going to play.  Holiday’s rookie contract is up after this season, but he is unlikely to leave in free agency for quite awhile.  Holiday has more upside than Thaddeus Young or  Louis Williams, two guys I like but also two guys from whom I think we have seen all that they can/will be.

AVOID:  Everyone else on the roster.  Man, once you get past the starting five and Williams, the roster gets paper thin.  But while I am here, I have to recommend that you put that Evan Turner jersey down.  Just because he was drafted #2 overall does not mean he can actually play.

Merry Christmas, one and all.

Onto the picks.  I have to admit…it is not going well.  As I write this, I am one game — one miserable game — above .500 for the season.  I need to reel off some winners.  Here goes nothing.  As usual, lines from Ladbrokes.com, and games where I am most confident denoted by an *.  Incidentally, there is no line for either MIA/BUF or PIT/SF.  So I will call MIA/BUF the stay-away and (hopefully) come back with a Monday night pick once we know whether Roethlisberger is playing.

BUCCANEERS +7 over Cowboys

GIANTS -6 over Redskins

Packers -13.5 over CHIEFS

VIKINGS +8 over Saints

Seahawks +3.5 over BEARS

Panthers +6 over TEXANS

Titans -6.5 over COLTS

Bengals -6.5 over RAMS

Lions -1 over RAIDERS

*Patriots -7.5 over BRONCOS

*Jets +3 over EAGLES

CARDINALS -6.5 over Browns

*Ravens -2.5 over CHARGERS

Last week:  6-8-1, 1-2-0*

Season to date:  94-93-7, 22-17-1*